Housing Markets That Beat the National Average Home Sale Price (And Those That Fell Short)

A new study by Today’s Homeowner analyzing the 150 largest metropolitan areas shows the major housing markets that have outperformed – or underperformed – the national average home sale price. Nationwide, home sale prices have been growing at impressive rates since mid-2020 after being largely stable in previous years, according to the St. Louis Federal Reserve. However, national trends can often mask regional and local differences.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency said last month that national home prices had risen 12.4% from September 2021 to September 2022. While this is significantly higher than historical averages, the third quarter of this year saw no increase in home prices, suggesting that persistent inflation and high interest rates are beginning to weigh on the market.

Our new study, which looked at the percent change and the dollar change in housing prices from 2017 to 2022, offers fresh insight into where local housing markets stand after years of impressive aggregate growth.

Main Findings

• The national average home sale price this year is $408,602, which is up 55% from 2017.
• Boise, ID, had the largest five-year percent increase (118%) in median home price.
• Out of the 150 major metro areas analyzed, only one showed a decrease in average home sale price: Montgomery, AL, where prices dropped $14,000 over five years.
• San Jose saw average selling prices increase by an eye-watering $475,000; No other major metro saw average prices rise by even $300,000.

Five-year Change in Median Sales Price

On average, these 150 largest metros saw a 58% increase, slightly more than the 55% national average. However, some metropolitan areas saw their home prices increase to more than double the national average, while others saw sluggish growth or even contraction.

The metros with the largest percent change in housing prices over the past five years were generally smaller or medium-sized areas with populations of less than one million. Boise is the most populous of the top five, which is home to 801,000 people.

Boise has seen skyrocketing home prices over the past several years due in part to wealthy Californians and other out-of-towners bidding up prices. However, there are signs that this kind of growth is unsustainable. Year-over-year home price growth has slowed to a crawl in pandemic boomtowns such as Boise, as high mortgage rates exert significant downward pressure on prices in some areas. Moody’s Analytics this summer named Boise the most “overvalued” housing market, while nearly 70% of Boise sellers slashed asking prices as they wrestled with a new reality in the once white-hot market.

On the other end of the spectrum, there is a range of cities where home prices have not kept pace with national averages. Some are major cities where housing is already extremely expensive, such as New York and San Francisco. Others are smaller areas suffering through anemic growth. None of the three metropolitan areas with the slowest housing market growth has more than 400,000 people. Montgomery, AL, is unique in being the only major metro that saw a contraction over the past five years, albeit a small one of -2%.

The areas that saw the largest absolute increases in home prices tended to be already in expensive markets. For example, all of the top six are on the Pacific coastline. But even among these mostly Californian cities, San Jose, where home prices shot up by $475,000 over five years, was a major outlier.

Earlier this year, research from Zillow named San Jose the most expensive city in the country, with a median list price of $1.39 million. Like Boise, analysts say the San Jose market’s astronomic growth makes it ripe for a correction. Realtor.com’s 2023 Housing Forecast predicts San Jose’s number of houses sold will decline by 28.8%, behind only Ventura, CA.

Metros in the Midwest dominated the list of areas that saw the smallest increase in home selling prices over the past five years. Although Montgomery, AL, topped the chart, metros in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, and Ohio made up seven of the top 10.

Metros That Are Performing Near the National Average

The metropolitan areas that have performed most closely to the national average can further inform our analysis of local variation among housing markets. More specifically, we can see if there is a certain part of the country that is somewhat representative of national trends in housing prices.

Interestingly, the metro areas that stuck most closely to the national average were in two neighboring states in the middle of the country, Colorado and Nebraska. But the geographic similarities did not end there. The Fort Collins metropolitan area is adjacent to the area anchored by Greeley, CO, and the Lincoln and Omaha areas are next to each other as well. House prices within these two stretches of land, one just north of Denver and the other straddling the Nebraska-Iowa border, are the most representative of how major metro markets across America have performed in the past five years.

Complete Data Set

We analyzed home sale price data for the 150 largest metropolitan areas in the country. The smallest was the Kingsport, TN, area, with a population of around 307,000, while the largest was the Greater New York region, with 19.8 million people. The areas we used include cities in most U.S. states and, with over 241 million people, make up almost three-quarters of the national population.

Summary

The housing market has been on a tear, with selling prices up over $400,000 from just five years ago. Perhaps just as notable is how widely this experience was shared across the country. With the single exception of Montgomery, AL, all of the 150 largest metropolitan areas saw housing prices increase, and most saw those prices increase at an impressive rate that exceeded historical trends.

However, the market has begun to cool recently, driven by the Federal Reserve’s campaign to tame inflation by hiking interest rates. Higher rates make mortgages more expensive and leave lenders more discriminating about who they will extend credit to. These factors have likely pushed home prices down, especially in markets where prices have gotten very high, very fast, such as San Jose and Boise. And, with no return to historically low interest rates on the horizon, it’s unlikely we’ll see a return to the explosive growth of the past five years anytime in the near future.

Methodology

Using Redfin data on the median sale price of a home, we found the average price for the top 150 metros by population in 2017 and 2022. We then calculated the percent change and the dollar change over the five-year period to compare to the national average on Redfin.